Market Briefing: Crude oil falls on doubts over OPEC+ output cuts

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Vrasidas Neofytou
Head of Investment Research

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Crude oil prices fell 0.5% on Thursday over concerns whether producers of the OPEC+ alliance will extend the current output cuts for another one month, on dispute over compliance issues from Nigeria and Iraq.

Coronavirus Update:

Global cases: More than 6.5 million
Global deaths: At least 386,091
U.S. cases: More than 1.85 million
U.S. deaths: At least 107,175

Crude oil:

WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell at $36.50 and $39 per barrel respectively on Thursday’s early US trading session. The virtual OPEC+ meeting was supposed to take place today, but Russia and Saudi Arabia drew a hard line over quota cheating. However, the meeting is still possible this week, if Iraq, Nigeria, and other non-complying members promise to deepen their production cuts.

Fig.01: Brent crude oil, 2-hour chart

The de-facto leader of OPEC group Saudi Arabia and the leader of non-OPEC members, Russia, which are two of the world’s biggest oil producers, have agreed to extend into July the 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) supply cuts backed in April by the OPEC+ alliance.

Market Reaction:

US stock markets had gains on Wednesday, in response to the better-than-expected labor market and services data, which strengthened optimism about the reopening of the U.S. economy.

Fig.02: Dow Jones index, 4-hour chart

The Dow Jones index surged at 26.269, up 2.1%, on Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained 1.40%, while Nasdaq Composite advanced by 0.80%.

Asian markets finished Thursday’s session with small gains, failing to follow the overnight rally in Wall Street. The market sentiment reversed after the suspension of Chinese airline passenger flights into the U.S.

Precious Metals:

Gold price lost 2% on Wednesday, breaking below the $1.700 per ounce level, on risk appetite and stock market rally on hopes for a global recovery.

Silver price trades 5% lower from monthly highs at $17.70/oz, but still holds most of its recent massive gains after bouncing from the lows of $11.50/oz in mid-March.

Precious metals were supported by the US-China trade tensions, a weaker US dollar, lower bond yields and announcements of stimulus packages.

Forex Market:

The EUR/USD pair holds above the key support level of 1.12, its highest since March ahead of the European Central Bank meeting later today. The ECB will decide the increase in the size of its 750 billion-euro ($669 billion) Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program to support the weak economies of the Eurozone.

Fig.03: EUR/USD pair, 2-hour chart

The DXY-US dollar index trades at 97.60, having fallen from highs of 101 during last week, on improved risk sentiment and hopes for global economies reopening.

Economic Calendar for June 04, 2020 (GMT+ 3:00):

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