The conflict in Ukraine may result in a global food crisis

Vrasidas Neofytou
Head of Investment Research

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine has caused a major supply shock in the global agricultural markets since the war together with the trade sanctions have largely trapped millions of tonnes of grains, oilseeds, and fertilizer exports from both countries.

With Russia and Ukraine accounting for 30% of global grain exports, the food industry is facing one of the worst disruptions to wheat, corn, and soya supply since World War 1, raising concerns regarding food security.

Many countries are scrambling to find alternative grain supplies which are necessities for billions of people and animals, while some exporters have cut back on grain shipments to keep prices from skyrocketing.

Grain prices have risen by more than 40% since the invasion begun, due to panic buying by commodity dealers and governments in response to uncertainties over grain availability.

Fertilizers, which enable plants and crops to grow, have also surged due to supply disruptions from Russia. Following rising wholesale gas prices, adding another headwind to the global food crisis.

Furthermore, the price of cooking oil such as sunflower oil has almost doubled since last year, due to Ukraine and Russia producing 60% of the world's oilseeds.

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