We are delighted to inform our clients on the accessibility of trading stock CFDs starting April 10, 2018, Tuesday. This exclusive asset class is our latest additional offering among others that will soon be available on our MT5 platform.
Exclusive Change Capital, as an Investment Firm incorporated under the laws of Cyprus with registration number: HE 337858, proudly announces the acquisition of its license number CIF 330/17.
Our company proudly announces the acquisition of its Portfolio Management licence as of April 16, 2018. This licence endeavours our ongoing attempts in the provision of quality and high-ended services in a wider spectrum.
Exclusive Capital is delighted to announce that Marshall Gittler, Chief Investment Strategist for ACLS Global, will be consulting with our portfolio investment team and contributing his FX commentary to our website. Mr. Gittler is well known as a strategist, investment specialist, and economist, with decades of experience working for the major investment banks in Europe and Asia.
Exclusive Change Capital Ltd. is pleased to announce that it has received the International Quality Certification ELOT EN ISO 9001:2015. This certification is addressed to organizations that wish to ensure their ability to provide products and services that meet customer requirements and comply with the legal framework.
We would like to congratulate the young Cypriot athlete Petros Englezoudis on having a great athletic year and becoming a Youth Champion in Skeet Shooting 2019.
As the latest situation in the Middle East has become one of the most recently discussed topics, our Head of Investment Research Vrasidas Neofytou will analyse the geopolitical developments on RIK1 TV program «Απο Μερα σε Μερα» on Wednesday, September 18th at 12:20 pm.
Since 2012 the Finance Magnates’ London Summit has been the leading event for professionals within the financial industry.It is a superb meeting place for finance-oriented individuals, entities, and organizations, such as liquidity providers, marketing specialists, brokers, and banks for educational and networking purposes.
It was our pleasure to be a part of three magical evenings in Episkopi Village, Limassol supporting the charity Christmas Village activities which took place from the 20th till 22nd of December, 2019.
Following a great effort from Exclusive Capital's management team to reduce smoking among employees during 2019, the company`s directors have decided to grant additional 5 days paid annual leave as a reward to those employees who make an effort not to smoke or to quit smoking.
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The Forex market has been trapped between the reopening rollbacks in the US and hopes for an economic recovery in other parts of the world.
The safe-haven currencies such as the US dollar, Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc have regained their safety status since the start of the week with the return of risk aversion sentiment. Florida reported daily records in infection cases while California re-imposed lockdown measures to contain the spread of the virus. However, these safety currencies remain near monthly lows against riskier currencies, as the US dollar ended its third week of losses in a row since last Friday.
Fig.01: DXY-US dollar’s index
The Euro climbed near 1.14 against the US dollar, its 4-month high, gaining support from the dollar’s weakness, the improved macroeconomic activity in the Eurozone and the ongoing fiscal and monetary packages from the European Union.
Fig.02: EUR/USD pair
The Pound Sterling trades in range as the gains from the stimulus plans were capped from the disappointed UK Gross Domestic Product figures and weaker fundamental data.
Fig.03: GBP/USD pair, 4-hour chart
Moving to Commodity currencies, the Australian and New Zealand dollars trade near yearly highs, benefiting from the rising prices in precious metals, copper, iron ore and other industrial metals. Furthermore, both currencies received support from the weakness in the US dollar and the massive rally in the Chinese stock markets.
US markets ended lower on Monday, erasing earlier gains after California closed all indoor activities following a surge in COVID-19 cases. Yet, the Nasdaq index opened the session with 2% in profits, making fresh all-time highs, before closing down 2% led by losses in Tesla and Amazon.
Fig.01: Nasdaq Composite, 1-hour chart
Asian markets fell 2% on Tuesday morning, following the overnight selloff on Wall Street, coupled with fresh tensions between US and China for the legal status of the South China Sea.
Fig.02: Hang Seng index, 1-hour chart
The WTI crude oil price fell 2% on Monday, breaking below $40 per barrel, on concerns that the newest reopening rollbacks in California could limit the recovery in fuel demand in the US.
Fig.03: WTI crude oil, 30 minutes chart
Gold slipped below the key level of $1,800 per ounce while Silver dropped below $19 per ounce on Tuesday morning, due to a stronger US dollar and profit-taking actions.
Fig.04: Gold price, 30 minutes chart
The US dollar was stronger across the board this morning, regaining back its safe-haven status in response to the rising coronavirus cases, the fresh lockdown measures, the stock market losses, and the geopolitical tensions.
What could be the direction of the markets in the upcoming months?
There are too many variables to consider and most of them are binary. This means that a variety of outcomes might happen, and most of them have little to do with the market and economic forecasting.
First of all, markets are currently being supported by fiscal and central bank stimulus that offer downside protection. On the other hand, valuations are more than stretched, which means any further upside is probably limited, especially given the resurgence of COVID19.
And as for COVID19, the issue at hand is not if we see total lockdowns, but how long we will be on the edge until the problem is over.
A COVID19 vaccine should be positive, but we don’t know when and if it will be available. Remember Aids is also a virus, and after all these years we still do not have a vaccine.
But assuming we do get a vaccine, we don’t know how markets will react. While most think it might be positive for markets, it might turn out a sell the news type of event.
With valuations already stretched, can he multiple continue to expand to infinity? The answer is no, but we don’t know from what point markets might decide to correct. Again, this is binary.
If investors roll over to other sectors out of technology could prevent markets from falling, but we don’t have any evidence of this so far.
The bottom line is that it is difficult to make any kind of prediction of what markets will do because valuations are more than stretched, COVID is still with us, we don’t know when we will get (and if) a vaccine. All these outcomes could be positive for markets but are random and not predictable. the S&P 500.
Global markets dropped on Friday, extending the weekly losses in response to the growing worries about the V-shaped global economic recovery as several US states posted record spike in coronavirus cases, while the World Health Organization warned that the pandemic is accelerating around the globe.
Coronavirus Update:
Global cases: More than 12.23 million
Global deaths: At least 554,304
Top five countries: United States (over 3.1 million), Brazil (over 1.75 million), India (over 767,000), Russia (over 706,000) and Peru (over 316,000)
Market Reaction:
The US markets were mixed on Thursday, with Dow Jones losing 1.4% and S&P 500 slid 0.6% after Florida reported a record number in coronavirus-related hospitalizations and a record spike in COVID-19 deaths.
The US reported more than 60,000 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, the biggest increase reported by a country in a single day. Data shows that more than 3 million Americans have already been infected by the COVID-19, with a death toll exceeding 133,000.
Cyclical companies such as airlines, cruise lines, casino operators, retail shops and financials that would benefit from the economy reopening had the larger losses across the board.
Fig.01: Nasdaq Composite index, Daily chart
However, Nasdaq index closed at an all-time high of 10.547 points, rising 0.5%, as Amazon jumped 3% to a record high at $3.182 per share. Other mega-tech giants such as Apple, Tesla, Nvidia and AMD finished the day in green as well, receiving massive support from investors who bet on the growth of those technology companies as they benefiting from the “at-home play”.
Crude oil:
Crude oil prices lost 1% on Friday, following the 3% losses from the previous session, on worries that the rolled back re-openings measures in many parts of the world could damage the recovery of the crude oil demand after pandemic.
Fig.02: WTI crude oil, 1-hour chart
The WTI crude oil price broke below $39 per barrel, while Brent crude dropped below $42, to their 2-week lows, despite the signs of a recovery in US gasoline demand as the US summer driving season starts to pick-up.
Precious Metals:
The recent rally in the precious metals has lost some steam since yesterday, as the prices of gold and silver lost 1% while Palladium and Platinum slid 2% in response to the recovered US dollar, lower US Treasury yields and some profit-taking actions.
Fig.03: Gold price, 15-minutes chart
Gold prices trade near the strong support level of $1.800/oz after having surged to their highest level since 2011 at $1.817/oz on Wednesday. Silver prices trade near $18.70/oz, slightly lower from their multi-month highs of $19/oz.
The precious metals received support from the fears for a second wave of pandemic after the record global coronavirus cases, the zero interest rates and the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus from the world’s governments and central banks to support their economies from the pandemic fallout.
One of the reasons why markets have behaved better than the real economy is because the real economy is no longer represented by the market.
For example, 5 stocks are responsible for 23% of the S&P 500 Index. In addition, the first 50 stocks represent about 50% of the Index. And guess what, most of those 50 stocks are technology companies.
Sectors like real estate, malls, airlines, brick and mortar retail, hotels, airlines, and many other sectors do not have a large enough market cap in the S&P Index to play a role. What is driving the market are mostly mega-caps, cloud, software, and semiconductor stocks.
The market cap of the Energy sector has been declining for an entire decade now. Today energy is worth scrap, yet it is responsible for millions of jobs. But it is not represented proportionally to its importance in the Index.
As such, it’s no wonder investors don’t understand why markets are so resilient. Yes, a lot has to do with fiscal and dental bank liquidity, but that’s only part of it.
Another reason is that the multiple in the technology space has been expanding at light speed. I don’t have an answer as to why, and I don’t buy the bullish theories analysts are investing to justify their price targets. In fact, it reminds me of 1999 when analysts were inventing ways to justify why stocks were going up, as opposed to saying valuations were ludicrous.
It’s not surprising that many long-time professional investors are also puzzled, and mostly not invested.
The US markets were mixed on Thursday as the Dow Jones dropped by 1% after Florida reported a record number in coronavirus-related hospitalizations. However, the Nasdaq index closed at an all-time high as Amazon jumped 3% to a record high.
Asian markets fell 1% on Friday morning following the overnight losses from Wall Street as investors remained cautious due to the growing number of coronavirus cases around the world.
Crude oil prices lost 3% yesterday in response to the concerns that the renewed coronavirus lockdowns could limit the recovery in global crude oil demand.
Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday on stronger US dollar and profit-taking actions, after having surged to its highest level since 2011. However gold price remains above $1,800 per ounce in the face of record U.S. coronavirus cases.
The US dollar was stronger across the board yesterday, recovering from its recent lows in response to the stock market losses and the fear for the second wave of infections.
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