Month: April 2023

Nasdaq jumps 2.5% on tech rally despite a weaker U.S. GDP reading

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Meta jumped nearly 14% higher to $238 a share, helping Nasdaq Composite to post its best trading session since March. Meta reported quarterly results that beat on both the top and bottom lines, and the social media giant delivered upbeat guidance, adding to a series of better-than-expected quarterly results from mega-cap tech such as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Meta jumped nearly 14% higher to $238 a share, helping Nasdaq Composite to post its best trading session since March. Meta reported quarterly results that beat on both the top and bottom lines, and the social media giant delivered upbeat guidance, adding to a series of better-than-expected quarterly results from mega-cap tech such as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 2.5% on Thursday as investors cheered a better-than-expected Q1 earnings report from Facebook-parent company Meta Platforms Inc, which triggered a rally across the board, despite weaker U.S. GDP data, and fears of slowing economic growth.

Meta jumped nearly 14% higher to $238 a share, helping Nasdaq Composite to post its best trading session since March. Meta reported quarterly results that beat on both the top and bottom lines, and the social media giant delivered upbeat guidance, adding to a series of better-than-expected quarterly results from mega-cap tech such as Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft.

Meta Platforms share, Daily chart

Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices are on pace for a second positive month in April, managing to recover earlier monthly losses from concerns about the U.S. banking sector, and economic recession.

The prospect of higher interest rates and persistent inflation spurred more concerns over a potential economic slowdown this year, especially ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting next week, where widely expected the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points to curb inflation.

Another factor that boosted risk sentiment on Thursday was the 8% gains on the shares of beleaguered regional bank First Republic amid a search for a recovery strategy. The stock has plunged over 60% since Monday after the release of its first-quarter results, which showed that deposits shrank by about 40% in the first three months of the year.

First-quarter GDP increases at a 1.1% rate:

All three major equity indices rallied on Thursday despite data showing that the U.S. GDP gross domestic product grew slower than expected last quarter, as investors focused on the above-forecast inflation number and an acceleration in consumer spending.

According to the data, gross domestic product increased at a 1.1% annualized rate last quarter vs a rise of 2% expectation, due to a decline in private inventory investment, while the economy grew at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter.

As a result of the stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation and labor market data, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve to hike rates by 25 basis points at the next FOMC monetary policy meeting of May 02-03.

Euro hits a 13-month high of $1.11 on ECB-FED monetary divergence

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

EUR/USD pair, Weekly chart

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

EUR/USD pair, Weekly chart

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

EUR/USD pair, Weekly chart

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

The shared currency hit a 13-month high of $1.11 against the dollar on Wednesday afternoon given the recent weakness on the greenback, the soaring U.S. banking concerns, and the monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD pair, Weekly chart

Euro has been getting support from the resilient economy in Eurozone in contrast to the first signs of contraction in the U.S. economy, the banking crisis, and the prospects for a less hawkish Fed ahead.

Eurozone’s inflation pressure remains strong despite the falling energy prices, forcing European Central Bank to maintain its hawkish monetary stance, while at the same time, U.S. inflation is softening, and with a combination of weaker economic data and earnings, is pressuring Fed to change its stance on the fight against inflation.

The dollar’s weakness supports Euro:

Euro has gained traction this week following the ongoing softens on the dollar, especially after the regional First Republic Bank reported on Monday more than $100 billion in customer withdrawals during the first quarter.

Investors have become sellers of the greenback and buyers of the euro as the sharp loss of nearly 70% on First Republic Bank’s shares since Monday, has resumed concerns about banking contention in the U.S. banking sector, at a time the banking system in Eurozone remains resilient despite record-high rates, inflation, and Ukraine war.

Hence, the greenback’s outlook has turned negative lately as the weaker-than-expected economic data and the softer corporate earnings have elevated fear of a recession in the world’s largest economy.

As a result, the DXY-U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the greenback against six major peers (the Euro weighs 57.6% on the index) has retested the yearly lows of 101 this week, coupled with the losses on the U.S. Treasury yields amid uncertainties over the Fed’s monetary actions.

Investors largely expect Fed to hike rates by another 25 bps on the next FOMC monetary meeting on May 02-03, while most of them also expect to pause in June, and start cutting rates after September, which will be positive for Euro.

Crude Oil Outlook for Q2, 2023

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

We remain bullish on the crude oil prices for the second quarter of the year based on the mismatch of the demand-supply oil dynamics given the reopening of China which will boost demand, and the surprising decision from the OPEC+ alliance to further slash output until the end of the year in a bid to avert a further slide in oil prices.

We also remain cautious about the major central banks of the Federal Reserve, ECB, and the BoE potentially raising interest rates to curb persistent inflation, which could slow economic growth and reduce petroleum demand.

Despite the macro factors affecting the price trajectory of the two benchmark oil grades, we believe that the leading price catalyst in the second quarter and as well as in the rest of the year would be the supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, led by Russia, known as OPEC+. The alliance includes 13 OPEC members and 11 non-OPEC members mainly from the ex-Soviet Eurasia region.

In early April, OPEC surprised the market by announcing voluntary output cuts of 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) from May till the end of 2023, saying that it was a “precautionary” move to support the stability of the oil market after the steep losses in March due to the banking crisis.

Let’s remind that last October, OPEC announced its decision to cut output by two million barrels per day from the August 2022 required production levels, starting November 2022 until 31 March 2023, to trim some surpluses that started to accumulate since mid-2022 due to lower Covid-led global fuel demand.

Adding on the OPEC cuts, Russia also announced on the same day an extension of its 500k bpd production cut until the end of 2023, with the supply cuts totalling around 1.650 million bpd, helping both Brent and WTI crude oil prices to bounce off sharply from yearly lows of $70/b and $64/b respectively, hit after the collapse of the two regional U.S. banks and the recession fears.

Finally, the unexpected decision by the OPEC+ alliance brings the total volume of cuts to 3.66 million bpd including a 2 million bpd reduction in October 2022, representing roughly 3.7% of global demand.

 

Bullish Q2, 2023 Outlook:

Base scenario: Brent crude to trade on an average of $85/b in Q2, 2023

We remain bullish on the crude oil sector as we expect the price of Brent (the benchmark for two-thirds of the world’s oil) to trade at an average of $85 a barrel in the second quarter of the year on the back of the imbalance between demand-supply dynamics.

We expect the global oil market balance to turn into a deficit after May when the supply cuts from OPEC and allies will be fully implemented at a time when demand growth for gasoline and jet fuels will start accelerating amid the beginning of the driving season and summer holiday period in U.S., Europe, and Asia (Northern Hemisphere).

Adding to the above, China, the world’s largest crude oil importer and the second-largest consumer just after the USA, is recovering from its strict 3-year-long Covid-led restrictions. The resumption of business, industrial, and tourism activity and the pending-up demand for traveling, could also boost fuel demand.

Another bullish factor for oil prices is the fact that U.S. SPR inventories are at their lowest levels in forty years, with rumours mounting about the need to refill them soon.

Dollar-denominated crude oil prices could also see further support from a weaker dollar and falling bond yields.  A weaker dollar could also boost global demand for oil by making it cheaper for holders of foreign currencies in other countries.

March’s banking crisis and the softening U.S. economic data could force Federal Reserve to slow down its aggressive monetary tightening to save the local economy from a recession, which in turn, will pressure the greenback lower in favour of crude oil prices.

 

Bullish scenario: Brent crude to climb up to or surpass the $100/b key psychological level

Our bullish case scenario assumes Brent oil prices to reach or even break above the $100/b key psychological level during the second quarter on some unexpected supply disruptions events, geopolitical risks, and a better-than-expected demand from China.

A $100/b projection includes a scenario that a hurricane could impact the oil-rich U.S. Gulf Coast ahead of the start of the U.S. hurricane season, which starts in June and until October.

There has been always a risk that a hurricane could halt the operations of the U.S. Gulf Coast refineries as well as cease the drilling on the offshore oil and gas platforms, which produce up to 15% of total U.S. crude output.

Hence, the surprising supply cut from OPEC+ and the ongoing Ukraine war is expected to intensify geopolitical risks by adding a risk premium on oil prices.

U.S. administration has criticized OPEC+ action given market uncertainty, adding further strain between Western allies-Eurasia ties, which is a bullish event on oil prices given the higher risk for supply disruptions.

Hence, the higher-than-expected recovery growth scenario in China amid successful stimulus measures, and the return to normal mobility without any further Covid outbreaks, could be the leading factors for a surge in China’s oil demand and the push of the price of Brent above the $100/b key level.

 

Bearish scenario: Brent crude to retest $70/b on a weaker fuel demand:

Our bearish scenario assumes Brent oil prices to fall back to Q1’s low of $70/b in case the ongoing aggressive monetary tightening by the central banks to curb inflation, the stronger U.S. dollar and bond yields, the recession fears, or any new collapse in the global banking sector could negatively impact the fuel demand growth despite tight supplies.

The surprising oil output cut from OPEC+ will threaten to strengthen inflation at a time when it was starting to reverse lower after the record-high readings in the preview months, forcing central banks to continue maintaining higher rates for longer.

Based on the above inflation-led assumption, our bearish projection is based on the scenario that higher-for-longer interest rates and negative consumer sentiment from the looming economic and banking crisis could deteriorate the global economic and industrial growth that would, in turn, cut demand for crude oil and petroleum products.

A similar case was seen back in 2008 when the financial crisis and the lower demand crashed the oil prices from record-high levels of $140/b to the lows of $30/b in just a few months in that year.

Finally, higher oil prices will bring fresh barrels into global markets, especially from U.S. Shale producers and from offshore Brazil which could inject over 500k bpd by the end of 2023, pushing lower the oil prices.

Markets edge lower ahead of a week with earnings and economic data

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Last week’s economic data for the U.S. economy were mixed, with Friday’s flash PMI for April coming in above expectations in both the services and manufacturing sectors, while Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reading for April showed that business activity in the region continued to contract by more than previously anticipated.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Last week’s economic data for the U.S. economy were mixed, with Friday’s flash PMI for April coming in above expectations in both the services and manufacturing sectors, while Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reading for April showed that business activity in the region continued to contract by more than previously anticipated.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The fresh economic reports will be very important for policymakers as they could influence the central bank’s next monetary policy actions, including a fresh decision on interest rates, at its next meeting on May 2-3, with market participants pricing in a further 25-bps rate hike.

Last week’s economic data for the U.S. economy were mixed, with Friday’s flash PMI for April coming in above expectations in both the services and manufacturing sectors, while Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reading for April showed that business activity in the region continued to contract by more than previously anticipated.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

The fresh economic reports will be very important for policymakers as they could influence the central bank’s next monetary policy actions, including a fresh decision on interest rates, at its next meeting on May 2-3, with market participants pricing in a further 25-bps rate hike.

Last week’s economic data for the U.S. economy were mixed, with Friday’s flash PMI for April coming in above expectations in both the services and manufacturing sectors, while Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reading for April showed that business activity in the region continued to contract by more than previously anticipated.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Global markets opened the week with minor losses as investors will be looking to the release of major corporate earnings and economic reports that will give a clue whether the weakening U.S. economic activity and the higher unemployment rate will be enough for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

The fresh economic reports will be very important for policymakers as they could influence the central bank’s next monetary policy actions, including a fresh decision on interest rates, at its next meeting on May 2-3, with market participants pricing in a further 25-bps rate hike.

Last week’s economic data for the U.S. economy were mixed, with Friday’s flash PMI for April coming in above expectations in both the services and manufacturing sectors, while Thursday’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reading for April showed that business activity in the region continued to contract by more than previously anticipated.

Tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite trades just below its yearly highs, keeping its upside momentum amid the prospect of a less hawkish Federal Reserve, coupled with the softening dollar, and bond yields.

Nasdaq Composite, Daily chart

Earnings season:

The earnings season has begun to ramp up in the United States, with economists looking ahead toward mega-cap tech earnings results this week such as Amazon, Microsoft, and Google-parent Alphabet, while many big banks are posting their quarterly results for the first time since the bank crisis in early March.

The banking sector will be looking to prove its resilience during a turbulent environment for depositors and policymakers, ahead of a major rate decision by the Fed.

Economic Data: Weekly Outlook:

The week ahead has a slew of some very interesting economic reports that will provide signs about the health of the U.S. economy and labor market, and further signals about the cooling inflation, which will be catalysts of the Fed’s future monetary policy actions.

On Monday and Tuesday, investors will be looking to the release of the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing index, and the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report respectively for fresh market insights.

On Wednesday, we expect the release of CPI inflation data for Australia and the U.S. Durable Goods report, and on Thursday, the U.S. Advance GDP for Q1, and the key weekly “Unemployment Claims” report.

Meanwhile, on Friday, the Core PCE Price Index-personal consumption expenditure price Index will dominate the headlines, as it’s one of the Fed’s favored inflation gauges.

Brent crude falls to $80 on demand concerns and weak economic data

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Brent crude, 2-hour chart

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Brent crude, 2-hour chart

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Brent crude, 2-hour chart

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

After four straight positive weeks for crude oil markets, both Brent and WTI are set to close this week with significant losses so far, as market sentiment has deteriorated after the softer-than-expected economic data in USA-the world’s largest oil consumer, along with the larger crude inventories, the fear for higher rates, and the uncertainty over demand growth outlook.

Brent crude, 2-hour chart

Brent price hit a three-week low of $80.50/b on Friday morning, losing over $7/b or nearly 8% after topping at nearly $87.50/b last week, while WTI price broke below the key $77/b support level on also $7/b lower from last week’s high of $84/b.

Energy investors have turned sellers on oil prices this week, and took out profits after the recent rally, concerned that the higher interest rates and hawkish monetary stance from major central banks of Federal Reserve, ECB, and BoE will damage economic growth in the following quarters, declining the demand for petroleum products.

Federal Reserve is largely expected to hike interest rates by another 25 bps in the next FOMC policy meeting on May 02-03, with similar hike expectations in Europe and UK in the same week amid the persistently high inflation.

Oil prices added losses on Thursday on signs of an economic slowdown following some softer-than-expected readings on manufacturing and labor reports in the United States, the world’s largest crude oil consumer, at a time when the gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased last week, showing another sign of lower fuel demand in the country.

The 6% weekly losses happened despite the positive economic growth signals from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer after the U.S., where first-quarter GDP grew more than expected after the country relaxed most anti-COVID measures earlier in the year, which has improved the domestic demand for petroleum products.

Sugar prices hit an 11-year high on tight supply and weather risk

Posted on by Vrasidas Neofytou

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar futures, Weekly chart

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar futures, Weekly chart

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Sugar futures, Weekly chart

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

Raw sugar futures are heading for a ninth monthly gain and prices are near the highest since 2012 as the global market struggles with a demand-supply imbalance, and bullish investors keep pilling in due to strong fundamentals and weather risks, while demand is coming stronger after the pandemic.

Sugar futures, Weekly chart

Sugar prices have gained over 20% so far this year toward the key $0.25 a pound level as the output in major producers such as India, China, Pakistan, and Thailand have fallen short of expectations on unseasonal weather conditions, coupled with lower-than-expected beet crop in Europe, and rainfalls in world’s top producer Brazil.

About 80% of global sugar production comes from sugarcane, according to the International Sugar Organization, while 20% is derived from beets.

The sugarcane harvest in Brazil’s south-central region — which accounts for 90% of the country’s production — runs from April to December and its yield would be a key gauge to monitor, at a time, logistics out of Brazil could be a problem, given that Brazil is also dealing with record corn and soybean crops.

Meanwhile, El Nino weather risks are raising concerns for production next season from most of the important producers in Asia, since there is a 62% chance of El Niño conditions from May to June, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Sugar prices have also received an additional boost last week following the latest data from the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA), which showed that cumulative domestic sugar production fell 5.4% year-to-year to 31.1mt through until 15 April due to unseasonal rainfall, whilst it added that just 132 mills were still crushing cane by mid-April compared to 305 mills at the same time last year.

Investors have been bullish on white sugar since mid-2020, helping the price to gain nearly 180% in just 36 months, rallying from the decade lows of $0.09 during the pandemic era to Wednesday’s high of $0.25.

Prices plunged to as low as $0.09 a pound on April 28, 2020, during the first Covid-19-led lockdown due to lower sugar demand, supply glut, and large stockpiles, prompting producers to shutter plants and cut jobs, while farmers reduced plantings, creating the conditions for the current decline in production.

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