Brent drops 3% to $83/b despite the EU embargo and G7 price cap on Russian oil

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The U.S. ISM-tracked services sector showed a reading of 56.5 in November versus 54.4 in October, indicating that the U.S. economy is accelerating, increasing the bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates above 5% to curb inflation, which will weigh on economic activity and deteriorate the oil demand outlook.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

The U.S. ISM-tracked services sector showed a reading of 56.5 in November versus 54.4 in October, indicating that the U.S. economy is accelerating, increasing the bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates above 5% to curb inflation, which will weigh on economic activity and deteriorate the oil demand outlook.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices ended Monday’s session sharply lower by more than 3% to near $83/b and $77/b respectively, after U.S. ISM Services sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in November, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve could continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively and support the dollar rally, despite Europe’s ban and G7 price cap on Russian oil.

The U.S. ISM-tracked services sector showed a reading of 56.5 in November versus 54.4 in October, indicating that the U.S. economy is accelerating, increasing the bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates above 5% to curb inflation, which will weigh on economic activity and deteriorate the oil demand outlook.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Both Brent and WTI crude oil prices ended Monday’s session sharply lower by more than 3% to near $83/b and $77/b respectively, after U.S. ISM Services sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in November, raising concerns that the Federal Reserve could continue to tighten monetary policy aggressively and support the dollar rally, despite Europe’s ban and G7 price cap on Russian oil.

The U.S. ISM-tracked services sector showed a reading of 56.5 in November versus 54.4 in October, indicating that the U.S. economy is accelerating, increasing the bets that the Federal Reserve will hike rates above 5% to curb inflation, which will weigh on economic activity and deteriorate the oil demand outlook.

Brent crude, 1-hour chart

The negative close came after a volatile session as the oil prices initially rallied 3% earlier to near $88/b and $83/b following the official kick-off of the EU import embargo, the G7 & EU $60-a-barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil, and the optimism of a recovery in Chinese fuel demand as several cities in the world’s top crude importer relaxed stricter Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend.

The purpose of the price cap by the G7, EU, and Australia is to ban shipping, insurance, and re-insurance companies (mostly Western) from processing cargoes of Russian crude around the globe, unless it is sold in non-EU nations (countries which are not part of the agreement) for less than the price set ($60/b), making it very complicate for Moscow to sell its oil on prices above the cap.

The agreement has also an adjustment mechanism to keep the price cap at 5% below the market price for Russian crude, based on IEA figures. The price cap agreement would be reviewed in mid-January and every two months after that, to assess how it is functioning and respond to possible “turbulences” in the oil market that occur as a result.

The initial idea for a price cap on Russian seaborne oil exports came from the Group of Seven (G7) nations to limit Russia’s oil revenues and reduce its ability to finance the illegal invasion of Ukraine.

Russia is the world’s third-largest crude oil producer with nearly 10 million barrels per day output, or 10% of the world’s oil, just only behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will not accept the price cap on its oil and is analyzing how to respond, adding geopolitical risk to an already tightening global oil market.

Yield curve inversion between 2-year/10-year bonds signals a recession risk

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The difference between 2-year and 10-year yields is called the “yield curve” and is a recession signal when investors are getting better repayment for snapping up shorter-term bonds than longer-term ones.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The difference between 2-year and 10-year yields is called the “yield curve” and is a recession signal when investors are getting better repayment for snapping up shorter-term bonds than longer-term ones.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The yield curve between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury has reached its largest inversion since the early 1980s on Tuesday morning, a sign that an economic recession is on the horizon.

The difference between 2-year and 10-year yields is called the “yield curve” and is a recession signal when investors are getting better repayment for snapping up shorter-term bonds than longer-term ones.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.

The yield curve between the 10-year U.S. Treasury and the 2-year U.S. Treasury has reached its largest inversion since the early 1980s on Tuesday morning, a sign that an economic recession is on the horizon.

The difference between 2-year and 10-year yields is called the “yield curve” and is a recession signal when investors are getting better repayment for snapping up shorter-term bonds than longer-term ones.

The 10-year Treasury yield trades to near 3.73% this morning while at the same time, the 2-year yield trades around 4.50%, with the spread between the two bonds hitting a fresh low of -0,77%, the widest negative gap since the early 1980’s when the U.S. suffered significant recession and the highest unemployment rate (almost 11%) since post-WWII.

10-2-year Treasury Yield Spread, Daily chart

The yield inversion is closely watched by analysts and investors since the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries have continued to drop below short-term Treasuries throughout 2022.

Where historically a yield curve inversion has often been the warning of an impending recession, this time it could potentially mean that investors are anticipating that the short-term rates will be higher in the near-term as the Fed wants to curb record-high inflation, and much lower long-term due to Fed intervention that will reduce rates in late 2023 after inflation would come back down.

The above anticipation and the widening of the yield curve are based on the lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index in October, meaning that inflation has peaked in the United States and has started coming down.