Nasdaq 2.5% higher after a strong tech rally

Market Brief, Tuesday, 21st of July, 2020

The Nasdaq Composite rose 2.5% on Monday, closing at record highs in response to the positive news over a coronavirus vaccine candidate coupled with optimism for more US fiscal stimulus.

Asian markets extended gains on improved risk sentiment, following the overnight rally in Wall Street. Kospi and Hang Seng indices led the gains with 2% while Nikkei followed with 1%.

Crude oil prices advanced on Tuesday morning as the vaccine optimism increases the hopes for a recovery in the global oil demand. WTI crude price climbed to $41 per barrel while Brent crude broke above $43 per barrel.

Precious metals benefited from the fresh stimulus measures by Europe and the US, as Gold prices jumped to their highest since September 2011, while Silver broke above $20 per ounce, for the first time after four years. 

Looking at the forex market, we can see the Euro holding near recent highs as the European leaders reached an agreement over the region’s 750 billion euro pandemic recovery fund, following marathon talks in Brussels.

Market Briefing: Euro hit fresh multi-month highs on hopes for a recovery fund


Euro hit fresh multi-month highs against the US dollar and Sterling on Monday morning, following the hopes for a compromise between the 27 European fiscal leaders on the proposed 750 billion-euro recovery fund that would help lift the EU out of its deepest recession since World War two.

Fig.01: EUR/USD pair, Daily chart

The common currency gained support on Monday morning after reports saying that the EU leaders made progress after three days of negotiations over a plan to support European economies damaged by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The meetings will resume later today at 14:00 GMT, yet, some leaders warned the discussions could still fall apart, and some others said that they could try again for an agreement next month if talks failed.

According to Reuters, on the table is a 1.8-trillion-euro ($2.06-trillion) package for the EU’s next long-term budget and recovery fund. The 750 billion euros proposed for the recovery fund would be raised on behalf of them all on capital markets by the EU’s executive European Commission, which would be a historic step towards greater integration, and then funnelled mostly to hard-hit Mediterranean rim countries.

Fig.02: EUR/GBP pair, Daily chart


“Frugal Four” vs South:

The EU leaders failed to reach an agreement during their 3-days marathon talks after a group of wealthy countries from north Europe, of the so-called “Frugal Four”, Austria, Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark, pushed for a smaller recovery fund and sought to limit how pay-outs are split between grants and repayable loans. According to the latest reports, the latest fund proposal was for a split between €390 billion in grants and €360 billion in loans.

An attempt to reach a compromise failed on Sunday. A deal predicting 400 billion euros in grants – down from a proposed 500 billion euros – was rejected by the north, which said it saw 350 billion euros as the maximum.

The “Frugal Four” group has already opposed to European Commission plans for a €750bn post-coronavirus recovery fund, saying that the other EU countries must also show a willingness to reform their economies and make them more “future-proof”.


Economic Calendar for July 20, 2020 (GMT+ 3:00):


US markets slightly lower on rising COVID-19 cases

Market Brief, Monday, 20th of July, 2020

The US futures edged slightly lower on Monday morning, following the rising coronavirus cases in the country. Furthermore, investors have turned their eyes to Washington as lawmakers begin negotiations on new stimulus measures of 1 trillion dollars.

Chinese stock markets jumped more than 2% on the first day of the week, as China keeps the benchmark lending rate unchanged, and as its economy continues to recover after reopening, following the pandemic crisis.

Crude oil prices fell 1% this morning, extending last Friday’s losses on concerns about the recovery in fuel demand as coronavirus cases surge while OPEC and its allies are planning to increase output in August.

Gold trades near multi-year highs, posting its sixth consecutive weekly gain on safety demand, as surging virus infections around the world fueled uncertainly about a global economic recovery.

Euro trades above the 1.14 level against the US dollar on hopes that European leaders would agree later today the proposed 750 billion euro recovery fund that would help lift the EU out of a recession.

Market Briefing: Netflix shares tumbled 8% on disappointing Q2 earnings

The US stock markets fell on Thursday in response to the losses in the technology sector and weaker than expected US jobless claims. Netflix led the overnight losses with nearly 8% on softer Q2 earnings and disappointing Q3 subscriber growth guidance.


Coronavirus Update:

Global cases: More than 13.7 million

Global deaths: At least 589,211

Countries with the most cases: United States (more than 3.5 million); Brazil (more than 2.0 million); India (968,876); Russia (751,612); Peru (341,586)


Market Reaction:

The US stock markets closed in red on Thursday’s session, where the Dow Jones index lost 0.5% posting its first daily decline in five days. The risk sentiment reversed after the US Labor Department announced a total of 1.3 million American citizens filed for unemployment benefits last week, which was slightly worse than analysts expected.

Fig.01: Nasdaq Composite, 1-hour chart

Nasdaq composite was the index with the bigger losses of 0.7% as the share of major tech companies such as Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon underperformed for the third day in a row.

The technology sector has been the best-performing group in the stock market in 2020, benefiting from the demand for advanced tech services and products during the coronavirus pandemic. However, they have struggled since the start of the week amid positive news of potential vaccine against coronavirus, losing more than 3% week to date.


Netflix:

However, Netflix was the company that dominated the overnight headlines, as its shares tumbled 8% during Friday morning after it reported disappointing Q2 earnings.

Fig.02: Netflix share, 1-hour chart

Furthermore, the company reported weaker Q3 growth guidance, as the company expects the paid subscribers would likely grow by 2,5 million to its video streaming platform, much lower of analysts’ estimates of 5 million as consumers get through the initial shock of COVID-19 and social restrictions.

Netflix added 10.1 million paid subscribers over the three months ending in June, posting its second-highest total on record.

The price of Netflix has lost more than $100 per share since Monday, or down by 17% with today’s massive losses. Yet, the shares are still up more than 50% year-to-date.

Dollar on the retreat

Analyst Insights, Friday, 17th of July, 2020

The EURUSD pair seems to be the talk of the town lately because it keeps going up despite pundits being bearish for the Euro for some time now.

Please note the EUROZONE has a chronic 5% current account surplus. Also, the political integration of Europe, while still far away, will eventually happen.

But as for the dollar, very few noticed that the Fed offered swap liquidity and there were very few takers. And as I have said before, I think eventually the US will also have negative yields. When this happens, the EURO should appreciate vs the dollar by a lot, for there would be very few reasons to buy US government securities to receive the yield they offer today (which is almost zero anyway).

But the important question is, what might a lower dollar mean for equities and markets in general? The answer is that a lower dollar is supportive for the global economy and equities, but also supportive for US markets.

About 50% of the profits of the companies that compose the S&P 500 index come from outside the US. So, a lower dollar means higher profits in dollars, when one converts those profits from the local currency.

Also, the lower the dollar, the easier for companies to repay their dollar debts outside the US. This gives the EM space and many countries a lot of breathing space.

The bottom line is that the lower dollar is good news for equities and the world economy. And to the extent that the dollar continues lower, it means support for equity markets both in the US and internationally. In short, a lower dollar is a win-win for everyone.

US markets 0,5% lower on higher jobless claims

Market Brief, Friday, 17th of July, 2020

The Dow Jones index fell 0,5% on Thursday, posting its first daily decline in five days, as the weekly US jobless claims came in slightly worse than expected coupled with losses in the technology sector.

Asian markets traded mix on Friday morning, with the Chinese markets extending Thursday’s sharp fall of 5%, due to the escalation of US-China tensions.

Crude oil prices lost 1% yesterday, following the decision of the OPEC group and its allies to roll back the record oil production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day from August.

Gold prices lost 1% yesterday, breaking below the $1,800 per ounce key level, in response to the vaccine progress and stronger US dollar. 

Looking at the forex market, we can see that the US dollar was stronger across the board yesterday, benefiting from the safe haven inflows after the record spike of COVID-19 cases in the US and the geopolitical tensions.