Crude oil tops at $70 over global economic recovery

The energy sector has been one of the best performing sectors of the market this year, as the faster than expected global demand recovery supports the higher oil prices and the bullish momentum.

The price of the Brent, the international crude benchmark, rallied to 72 dollars per barrel, hitting a 2-year high, whilst the US-based WTI crude rose back to 70 dollars for the first time since 2018.

Both oil contracts have risen by nearly 40% this year as the successful vaccination campaigns and the removal of social restrictions, have triggered a powerful recovery in global economic activity, driving the demand for petroleum products higher.

On the upside, OPEC group, together with other top global oil producers, have agreed to maintain their existing pace of gradually easing of supply restrictions, as the global oil demand is expected to pick up in the second half of 2021.

On the downside, investors have been reluctant to push the prices above 70 dollars, on the back of a possible return of Iranian oil supplies into global markets as part of a restored nuclear deal with global powers.

With oil prices returning to pre-pandemic levels, the energy sector has massively outperformed Wall Street this year. The shares of some of the largest energy companies such as Conoco Philips, Exxon, and Valero have surged up to 50% in 2021, regaining their lost ground from the pandemic.

Vrasidas Neofytou analysis on the crash of the Bitcoin featured in “Economy Today” June’s issue

A series of negative market catalysts caused a major sell-off in the cryptocurrency markets in May, with Bitcoin plunging up to 50% from a record high of $65,000 hit on April 14.

The wild volatility in the values of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin has raised concerns among investors as to whether digital currencies could be considered as a store of value and whether they could replace gold and fiat currencies in investors portfolios.

Read our Head of Investment Research Vrasidas Neofytou detailed analysis on the hot topic in “Economy Today” magazines June’s issue*.

*Article available in Greek (page 12-17).

Proudly Receiving the “Best White Label Provider 2021” Award

Our team is delighted to announce that Exclusive Capital has received the 2021 Global Forex Award – B2B by winning the category “Best White Label Provider”.

The Global Forex Awards – B2B, presented by Holiston Media, recognizes the best-performing businesses and brands on a global and regional basis. The winners are chosen based on the public voting process. This year voting took place throughout April with over 9000 votes cast from over 3400 unique voters.

Founded in 2018 to celebrate creativity, innovation, effectiveness, and customer service in the retail and B2B financial industry, today Holiston Media hosts five international awards.

We would like to thank you to all the voters who supported Exclusive Capital and recognized our continuous effort to offer the best quality products and services.

Pound Sterling continues its upward momentum against the Japanese Yen

Pound Sterling continues its upward bullish momentum against the safe-haven Japanese Yen, posting fresh multi-year highs to near ¥156,00 level on Thursday morning, due to the improved fundamental dynamics for the British economy, and the ongoing weakness in the Japanese Yen, despite the resurgence of UK covid cases.

GBPJPY pair, 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen, which it considers as a safe store of value during uncertain times (Covid-19, wars, economic recessions), extends its downside momentum against Pound Sterling started at the beginning of April 2020 (after it topped at ¥124 mark), as the low-interest rates, the retreating bond yields, and the risk-on mood in the global stock markets, make it less attractive against the growth-led Pound Sterling.


Sterling rallies on a faster-than-expected UK economic reopening:

FX traders maintain their massive bullish trend strategies on Pound Sterling, since the British economy has been reopening by a faster-than-expected pace than the rest economies of the world amid the successful vaccination programs in the country.

UK has recently announced that it has vaccinated over 40 million people with a first dose against COVID-19 so far, which is the 75% of the adult population, while more than 26 million have had a second dose. This a huge achievement for the UK since it has the fastest rollout per capita of any large country and being just second behind Israel.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that his government plans to offer vaccines to as many adults as possible by July, adding that the continued success of the vaccine program is one of the four conditions needed for further easing lockdown restrictions.


Market Reaction for GBP/JPY:

Pound Sterling has been the best-performing G10 currency against the safe-haven currencies of the US dollar, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen in 2021.

However, the Sterling’s gains have been even more dramatic against the Japanese Yen, posting more than 10% profits so far, since the Bank of Japan will maintain its pandemic-relief gigantic monetary policy despite the recent spike in inflation rates due to elevating commodities prices such as crude oil, copper, iron ore, and other industrial metals.

Japan is a net importer of raw materials necessary to support its massive manufacturing industry and its worldwide export volumes. Despite the large size of Japan, it does not mine significant amounts of commodities, relying on imports of industrial metals mainly from the neighbor Australia, and crude oil from Middle East (OPEC oil producers).


Bearish catalysts for Sterling:

Sterling was unable to break above key resistance level of ¥156 mark on Thursday as investors worry about whether the rapid spread of the new Covid-19 variant called “Delta variant” (originally identified in India) in Britain and Europe, can delay plans for reopening the British economy.

Johnson’s administration has denied there is a need to delay the last stage of the UK’s reopening, while Germany announced fresh restrictions for travellers coming from Britain. As a result, the delivery of the second dose to over 50s in the UK has been accelerated in response to the emergence of the Indian variant of the virus.


Conclusion:

The general trend is bullish for the Pound Sterling against the Japanese Yen, and it could continue its uptrend momentum if the British economy opens from the pandemic, while the Bank of England might start easing its aggressive monetary policy and raise the interest rates sometime after 2022 or 2023.

Brent breaks above $71/b as OPEC+ sees strong demand dynamics

Brent crude oil climbed above the $71/b level for the first time since early March 2021, while the rival WTI crude raised to near the $69/b mark, supported by the bullish oil demand forecasts from OPEC+, and the possible delays regarding the Iranian nuclear deal.

Brent crude oil contract, 1-hour chart

The price of the international crude benchmark Brent settled just above the psychological key resistance level of $70/b on Tuesday, posting the highest close since May 2019, while the price of the West Texas Intermediate contract ended just below the $68/b, hitting its highest closing level since June 2018, recovering mid-May losses.

The crude oil contracts fell as much as 10% in mid-May, as investors were concerned about the growing U.S. inventories coupled with worries over a possible return of Iranian oil supplies onto global markets as part of a restored nuclear deal with the US and other global powers. Brent crude fell as low as $64/b on May 21, while the WTI crude tested $61/b level before recovering to near current levels.


OPEC+ oil cut decision & Strong demand dynamics:

Brent oil price broke above $70/b yesterday following the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia together with the other top global oil producers of the OPEC+ alliance to stick to the existing pace of gradually easing supply restrictions starting from July 01.

The group took the decision since it sees solid demand recovery in the US and China, while the prospects of the successful vaccination campaigns could improve the global economic activity after the pandemic, increasing the petroleum demand growth from resuming summer traveling and reopening economies.

Saudi Arabia also agreed to continue easing its unilateral cuts of 1 million barrels per day that it put in place in early 2021, helping further the rebalancing in the global oil market.

Overall, the OPEC+ oil producers have been unwinding their historic supply cuts of 10 million barrels per day, agreed on May 2020, after the unexpected outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic destroyed the global fuel demand by as much as 30%.

The pandemic-led demand shock forced the energy traders to close their long positions, sending the price of Brent oil below $16/b at one point, while the price of WTI oil posted a historic low below zero for the first time ever (settled at -$47/b).


Delays in the Iranian nuclear deal:

Crude oil prices boosted from the likely postponement in the Iran nuclear deal, as investors see slow progress in the talks, delaying the returning of approx. 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil.

According to some Iranian officials, the talks between the USA, Iran, and some European diplomats on restoring the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal which was cancelled by former U.S. President Donald Trump three years later in 2018, are likely to pause on Thursday, without any information if they would resume before Iran’s June 18 presidential election.

Trump administration withdrew from the nuclear agreement in 2018, urging Iran for increasingly violating the accord’s limits on its nuclear program designed to make it harder to develop an atomic bomb, despite the refusal from Iran.

US dollar drops across the board as Fed maintains its dovish stance

The US dollar continues its downward trend, hitting a 4-month low, as the Federal Reserve maintains its stimulatory monetary policy settings even as data on core inflation topped forecasts.

Euro rises back above the 1,22 level against the greenback, getting support from the improved Eurozone’s economic outlook, progress in vaccination campaigns, and the softer dollar.

On the upside, the Euro finds major resistance at the 1,23 level, as the European Central Bank is unlikely to tighten its monetary policy anytime soon. However, breaking above 1,23 could clear the path for the price to re-test 2018’s highs of 1,25.

The pound sterling trades to near multi-year highs of 1,42 to the dollar, as the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates in 2022, since the British economy is recovering faster than expected from the pandemic.

However, investors have been reluctant to push the pound higher on the back of growing concerns that the economic re-opening could be delayed due to the spread of virus variants.

The growth-sensitive Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars have been the best performing currencies in 2021 after the global economic recovery appears to gain momentum.

The aforementioned currencies are getting support from the rising commodity prices, while their respective central banks have started considering the easing their monetary stimulus.